Fremtidsforskning og cases


The United Nations mid-range projection reaches 11.2 billion by 2100
(UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: The
2015 Revision, Key Findings & Advance Tables [New York: United Nations, 2015], ... pdf 

Structural-demographic theory

Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics
Goldstone, Jack A., Eric P. Kaufmann, and Monica Duffy Toft, eds. Oxford University Press 2012. 
Jack A. Goldstone --Demography and geopolitics ... ... ... 

The New Population Bomb
Goldstone, Jack A., 2010: The New Population Bomb, Foreign Affairs.
... twenty-first-century international security will depend less on how many people inhabit the world than on how the global population is composed and distributed ...
... The relative demographic weight of the world's developed countries will drop by nearly 25 percent, shifting economic power to the developing nations ...

Jack A. Goldstone

Evolution and Big History: Dimensions, Trends, and Forecasts 
Af Leonid E. Grinin et al. 

Cliodynamics is a transdisciplinary area of research integrating cultural evolution, economic history/cliometrics, macrosociology, the mathematical modeling of historical processes during the longue durée.

Structural-demographic theory  (SDT)
Structural-Demographic Theory is a social-scientific theory that uses mathematical modeling to explain and predict outbreaks of political instability in complex societies. It originated in the work of American sociologist Jack Goldstone and has recently been developed further by Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin and Sergey Nefedov. 

Populations and feedback loops
Turchin, P. (2009), "Long-term population cycles in human societies", in Ostfeld, R. S.; Schlesinger, W. H., The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology, 2009, pp. 1–17. 
... This review asks, are population processes in historical and prehistorical human populations characterized by second-order feedback loops, that is, regulation involving lags? If yes, then the implications for forecasting future population change are obvious - what may appear as inexplicable, exogenously driven reverses in population trends may actually be a result of feedbacks operating with substantial time lags.  ... First-order feedbacks act on a fast-time-scale. For example, in a territorial mammal, as soon as population has increased to the point where all available territories are occupied, ...
... For example, the demographic–structural theory predicts that there should be dynamical feedbacks between the two variables: increasing sociopolitical instability has a negative effect on the rate of population growth, while increasing population density has a positive effect on the growth rate of instability. ... pdf 

Peter Turchin and colleagues divides historically observed societies up into four components: the state, elites, the general population, and one processual component designed to measure political instability. These four components are each subdivided into different attributes, which fluctuate dynamically and influence one another through a series of feedback loops. For instance, the theory takes into account the numbers and composition of elites, the age structure and degree of urbanization of the general population, and the revenues and expenditures of the state. It also includes an ideological aspect, tracking the prevalence of ‘prosocial’ norms promoting cooperation as well as ‘radical ideologies’, understood as inherently socially disruptive

Peter Turchin - population-warfare theory:
Peter Turchin has made contributions to population ecology, cultural evolution, and historical dynamics. He is one of the founders of cliodynamics. 
... Of special importance is his study of the hypothesis that population pressure causes increased warfare.

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Demografi, økonomi og politik

The Precarious Generation: A Political Economy of Young People
Judith Bessant, Rys Farthing, Rob Watts 2018. Routledge ... ... 

A new political economy of generations 
...  While governments and experts typically explain this by referring to globalization, new technologies, or young people’s deficits, the authors of this book offer a new political economy of generations, which identifies the central role played by governments promoting neoliberal policies that exacerbate existing social inequalities based on age, ethnicity, gender and class. ... 

Cote, J. 2014, ‘Towards a new political economy of youth’, Journal of Youth Studies, 17(4): 527–543.

Macdonald, R., 2016, 'Precarious work: the growing precarité of youth', Furlong, A. (ed), Handbook of Youth and Young Adulthood, Abingdon: Routledge.

Roberts, S. 2012, "One Step Forward, One Step Beck: A Contribution to the Ongoing Conceptual Debate in Youth Studies.", Journal of Youth Studies, 15, ( 3): 389- 401.

Woodman, D., 2012, The Rise of the Temporal Precariat: Conceptualising Inequality among Young People in the Context of Labour-Market Change.  TASA ... pdf